The Daily Herald reported today that Broadweave failed yet again to make their payments to Provo from their operating revenues, dipping into the reserve fund for the third month in a row. This is despite claiming revenues that have increased 20% in the last 6 months and adding 400 more subscribers since last month. Some back of the napkin figures from a telecom professional I know shows that Broadweave may need to add as many as 5,000 new subscribers at an ARPU of nearly $65/mo in order to make that bond payment.
Because of the weather, new installs are challenging at best. Trenching the frozen ground isn’t much of an option right now which would force new installs to lay fiber across their lawn until the trench and conduit can be put in. Odds are that a lot of the new subscribers are incoming college kids for the winter semester, the ones that are predominantly Internet-only subscribers and disproportionately heavy users.
Since the only data we have is pre-Broadweave or heavily filtered, all we have to go on are best guesses. So far, though, it’s not looking too good. If they experience a sudden drop in subs in May-June, we’ll know for sure that the student population is making up a large proportion of the subscribers.