CableCARD is DOA

Last month, Ars Technica wondered aloud why it is that you can't get a CableCARD device very easily. After all, the FCC mandated that cable companies start supporting "digital cable-ready" television sets way back in July. Despite this, both of the major cable box manufacturers don't sell at retail, cable companies haven't trained their staff on CableCARD and digital TV sets with a CableCARD slot are very, very pricey.  The conclusion is that CableCARD's technical limitations mean that cable operators would rather skip it for the Next Big Thing™ to support SDV and 2-way communication right out of the box.

Further confirmation of this comes as TiVo offers up an adapter to allow their CableCARD-ready units to tune in SDV channels, something that they haven't been able to do. Given that most cable providers will be moving to some form of SDV to conserve bandwidth and offer up nearly limitless programming, it seems that CableCARD is a technology headed for the dustbin before it even becomes available.

My personal advice would be to not get too heavily invested in CableCARD unless you get a unit that it specifically upgradeable to support SDV. Even then, it might be worth it to play a game of "wait and see" until the next technology, DCAS, becomes widely available.

Google Plans a 700MHz Bid

Though it was more-or-less settled in speculation, Google has committed itself to spending at least $4.6B on a chunk of the valuable "C block" going up for auction this Janurary. Some prime motivators include a change in wholesaling rules by the FCC and Verizon dropping their lawsuit to halt open access (even though the CTIA is continuing that fight and AT&T is still being a crybaby about it). Analysts think Google might team up with an existing wireless partner for the bid, though this seems to run counter to their intention to offer up an open network for use by any provider and any device. Given the steep price tag of this prime piece of wireless real estate, it's unlikely that Google will bid for spectrum in the UK anytime soon.

In other 700MHz news, the FCC awarded a license for 10MHz of bandwidth to PSST, the only company to apply for the job of building a nationwide emergency communications network. With the backing of various fire and police organizations, it was pretty much a shoe-in. The network is expected to get all police and fire departments nationwide using compatible equipment, though there's some stiff resistance to buying a lot of expensive new equipment when the time comes.

Wireless Woes: Earthlink, AT&T, Sprint All Drop Plans

Earthlink finally got over the hangover and decided that municipal WiFi just wasn't working out the way they had planned. The company decided to put it's muni WiFi operations on the chopping block for a cool $40M (provided, of course, that there's an interested buyer). AT&T is also backing off on muni WiFi. After bailing on St. Louis, they've now backed away from a system in Napa CA after the PUC defined unpalatable regulations regarding antennae height.

Sprint's also feeling the wireless pinch. After nixing their high-profile partnership with Clearwire, the company hinted that it might be getting out of the WiMax business altogether. Rumors are afoot that Comcast might either partner with Sprint or buy out the company entirely in order to get into the wireless space, but such expensive talk spooks investors already unimpressed with the company's financial picture.

Life in the Fast Lane: FIOS and UTOPIA Speed Bumps Kick Off Bandwidth War

Verizon shook the industry with a move to 20Mbps synchronous connections. UTOPIA rocked it further by allowing providers to ramp up to 50Mbps. Now the entire cable industry has gone nuts trying to ramp up speeds in short order during Q4.

Insight Communications and Cox Communications have each decided to jump to 20Mbps downloads, albeit in limited markets and to a limited number of subscribers. Charter is rumored to be working on a 16Mbps/2Mbps tier coming Real Soon Now(TM). Charter is making their jump by using a technology called SDV that works in a fashion similar to AT&T's U-Verse. Instead of sending all television channels down the pipe at a time, it only sends the channels being actively watched. This helps conserve major bandwidth for more channels and faster speeds. Cox, meanwhile, is doing a lot more than just using SDV. They've also added a big slice of bandwidth to their transceivers and are planning to build their own backbone using some of Level 3 Communications' dark fiber.

This doesn't mean that Verizon is standing still. They've found a way to reliably send 100Gbps over a single strand of fiber and are talking about jumping to 200Mbps for their existing FIOS customers. (They're also rumored to be looking at forcing people onto FIOS to be able to get rid of their old copper/DSL infrastructure. Boo.)

In all of this, though, you're not likely to get what you think you're paying for. That clever "up to" phrase means you could experience congestion at any point from your neighborhood node to the exchange points on the cable company's carrier. Also don't forget that allowing you to use anywhere from 20-200Mbps without a cap can get real expensive for your ISP. Make sure you keep a close eye on those contracts to watch for limitations and caps.

Spineless: The Internet Backbone Needs an Overhaul

Cable companies are testing 100Mbps cable modems, an Aussie PhD claims to have found a way to make DSL ramp up to 250Mbps within 3 years and Verizon is trying out some 400Mbps connections on its FIOS service. Big numbers, but the Internet backbone probably can't handle it. A recent study predicts that by 2010, we'll start to see slowdowns because of inadequate fiber optic capacity unless backbone providers double their planned construction to $137B.

It's not going to get any better either. TV viewers have been ditching the boob tube for online video, consuming it more voraciously than they did its broadcast cousin. The XBox 360 is rumored to be incorporating IPTV features, bringing online video into the living room en masse. Akamai recently opened a portal for HD video content. Even IP laggard Qwest is rumored to be taking a hard look at IPTV and snatching up video franchise agreements. All that video has to have some way to get from point A to point B and the consensus is that a high-fiber diet is the way to do it.

Even scarier is the price of not doing it. Studies have shown that high-speed connections promote job growth and the resultant telecommuting increases worker satisfaction and productivity. Despite this, the US continues to slip in world broadband rankings. It's not that there isn't demand either. Engineering and medical firms need to be able to transfer large files quickly to multiple locations, but the infrastructure to do it economically just isn't there.

There is some light at the end of the fiber optic tunnel. Researchers in Japan have found a way to bring fiber optic lines up to terabit-class connections using some improved algorithms and a new kind of laser while BASF is trying to find ways to make the exchange of data from optical to electrical transmission much more efficient using crystals. There's also talk of using the Universal Service Fund (USF) to start encouraging better broadband deployments (though given how mismanaged the USF has been, this may or may not work so well). Think tanks and consumer groups are also calling for a different kind of regulation that lowers the high cost of market entry (a prime factor in preserving our current duopoly) and keeps the incumbents accountable.

At the end of the day, it's going to take a lot more than the status quo to make sure the Internet doesn't collapse on itself. 

It's Official: No More Net Taxes for Seven Years

It passed the House. It passed the Senate. And on October 31, President Bush channeled his dad's words and said "no new taxes." After getting right down to the deadline, Internet access will remain tax-free for another seven years. Not all is good, however. VoIP services no longer have those tax-free statuses thanks to some finagling by Rep. John Conyers of Michigan. Nine states previously grandfathered in will still be allowed to charge taxes on Internet access.

No Rest For the Weary: Vonage Coughs Up $80M to Verizon, Gets Hit With Major Security Holes

The bad news for Vonage just keeps on rolling in. The face of VoIP providers everywhere has reportedly coughed up $80M to make Verizon leave them alone. That's almost a third of their cash on hand, not a pretty picture for a company with high churn rates due to some lacking customer service.

It's only downhill from there. According to a security firm, Vonage could be wide open to line hijacking. Among the key elements cited is a lack of encryption used between their telephone adapter hardware and their VoIP gateways. Combined with weak authentication, it could take as little as a phone number and a name to make Bob Jones of Virgina have his calls ring in Moscow with little indication that anything is wrong.

I've been using Vonage for over three years myself and I can attest to their kind of crappy service. It took me over 4 months to get a simple e-mail problem fixed and about 2 months to get them to swap my primary and secondary numbers (after which they forgot to activate my voice mail box). Despite that, I've been pleased with the service. I am, however, worried that I'll wake up one morning and find I no longer have a dial tone. 

Comcast Facing Wrath of Consumers, Congressmen, Wall Street Over BitTorrent Throttling

In the wake of Comcast's throttling, er, "delaying" of BitTorrent connections, it seems like all hell has broken loose for the mammoth cable operator. Not only are they facing lawsuits, consumer complaints to the FCC and some seriously peeved members of Congress, but they'll also have to contend with a re-energized network neutrality debate.

Throughout the whole process, Comcast has made itself look worse and worse. First they denied. Then when the AP caught them, they tried to spin it and claim that they were "delaying" instead of outright blocking. Then when an internal memo got leaked detailing their official policy, they started on a witch-hunt to find and terminate the responsible employee. So to recap, Comcast thinks that good PR consists of deny, spin, fire whomever talked. It's a Reality Distortion Field™ that would make Steve Jobs proud.

Since the story broke, Wall Street has been pounding the company, sending their stock price to a 52-week low. Even prior to their dismal earnings report on the 25th, the stock had already dropped about 25% from it's 52-week high. What's to blame? Probably their poor customer service driving customers away to services like Verizon's FIOS and a lack of dial-up customers to continue their growth. Industry observers have said it's time for them to start dropping prices, but that doesn't jive with their plans to jack up television rates even higher.

Do you hear that, Comcast? That is the sound of inevitability. That is the sound of your irrelevance. 

UTOPIA in the Bloghive: Construction in Perry, Rob Bennett Takes a Position in W. Jordan

I'm going to start making a conscious effort to track blog postings in Utah about UTOPIA. As I noted earlier today, a lot of us talk but not to each other. Here's to hoping that highlighting discussions about UTOPIA brings more attention to the project!

First up is an update from Perry, one of the Phase 2 cities covered under the RUS loan. According to this blog post, service should be live there beginning in May of 2008. Construction is just barely underway, but it sounds like excitement in the city is high. After all, they've spent years planning this.

Second is a post from Rob Bennett, a city council member in West Jordan. He's taken an official stance on UTOPIA: wait and see. It seems like he understands both the technological need and the business need for UTOPIA given the failure of big telco; he's just having a hard time with the financials. West Jordan residents, perk up: after reviewing a copious amount of UTOPIA-related data, he plans to take it to the city council to be acted upon! (You know, provided he gets re-elected and everything.) This is an opportunity to get your friends and neighbors in West Jordan clamoring for UTOPIA!

That's all I've got for today. Stay tuned for more as it happens. 

Qwest Building FTTN, Plans 20Mbps DSL

Remember the RFPs that Qwest put out earlier this year for fiber optic equipment? Apparently they plan on going somewhere with it. During their quarterly conference call to discuss earnings (which, by the way, paints a poor financial picture for Qwest), it came out that they're planning on dropping about $300M on an FTTN network. The plan? To use ASDL2+ or VDSL to give about 1.5M people 20Mbps connections.

This sounds impressive until you consider what the other major telcos are doing. Verizon is planning to spend $23B to build out FIOS and AT&T has committed $6.5B for U-Verse deployments. Qwest also has no plans to offer IPTV over this new network like Verizon and AT&T, sticking to their partnership with DirecTV instead. They also plan to only have this available to about 24% of their customers by the end of 2008, a very slow build-out. Any bets that we'll still see very slow upload speeds? My magic 8-ball says "count on it".

Of course, this is all a case of "too little, too late". Qwest has entered the fiber game late and UTOPIA providers clean their clock on speed and price. I guess they can always compete with Comcast, right?